Last year I put together a simple payout scenario for deciding between a new hybrid and a new conventional version of the Toyota Camry. I got some good feedback to also look at older hybrids and also to figure in updated miles per gallon numbers.
Trying to keep things even, Kelley Blue Book values will be used.
The 2009 Toyota Camry lists 33 city/34 highway for the hybrid, and 21/31 for the SE. The 5-speed manual has the same mileage as the 5-speed automatic, but I would have expected more mileage from the manual. The hybrid has an invoice price of $23,474, and the 5-speed automatic has an invoice of $20,585.
Kelley Blue Book is listing higher prices for the older vehicles. The Suggested Retail for the hybrid is $25,335, and the conventional is $20,720. At these prices there is no gain to be had for going to an older hybrid or even an older conventional. I’ve no explanation for the higher prices other than aggressive pricing by Toyota.
Pity I have to expand my fuel table to consider $5 gasoline. I’ll use city numbers to maximize the difference.
Gasoline cost per month = 30 * miles driven per day / miles per gallon * price per gallon
| SE 21 mpg | Hybrid 33 mpg | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Per Day | $3/gal | $4/gal | $5/gal | $3/gal | $4/gal | $5/gal |
| 20 | 86 | 114 | 143 | 55 | 73 | 91 |
| 50 | 214 | 286 | 357 | 136 | 182 | 227 |
| 100 | 429 | 571 | 714 | 273 | 364 | 455 |
Assuming no trade-in, $1000, and 3%, the monthly payment for the SE is $351.92, $403.83 for the hybrid. To justify getting the hybrid, the gasoline savings has to be $51.91 per month or greater. Those scenarios are as follows:
| $3/gal | $4/gal | $5/gal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 31 | 42 | 52 |
| 50 | 78 | 104 | 130 |
| 100 | 156 | 208 | 260 |
Some differences are one off due to rounding.
Unlike last year, the difference between the hybrid and the conventional models is a lot less, and $5 gasoline makes the more efficient model pay out even at 20 miles per gallon. Manual transmission knocks $1000 off the price for a difference of $68/month, which only affects the 20 miles per day scenario.
Clayton Cramer was doing similar calculations on his own blog. He has the added problem, though, that living in rural Idaho, he absolutely needs a 4WD for a few months out of the year just to navigate the roads. So a hybrid would be an “extra” vehicle.
Thanks for doing these calculations. I drive at least 20 miles/day just between home and church. Looks like a hybrid is in my future.